Comparing Google, Tesla, and Bitcoin: Investment Performance and Inflation Impact
Foreword
Everyone would like their money not to lose value but to grow. One of the most straightforward ways to achieve this is through investing. But then the question arises—Yes, but in what? Stocks, gold, Bitcoin, or maybe investing in a new or existing business? I had the same question myself.
To make a decision, we’ll compare the best stocks and Bitcoin, calculate returns, inflation, etc.
It’s worth starting with a question: How likely do we think it is that Bitcoin will become the main payment method in most countries?
Maybe only a 5 or 10% chance, but it’s also possible that we’re already 100% convinced this is the future’s global money. If we give it a 5% probability, then why isn’t 5% of our portfolio allocated here?
Even from a risk management perspective, this is a conservative investment step. For example, based on the 80/20 rule (Pareto principle): https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/050115/what-are-some-reallife-examples-8020-rule-pareto-principle-practice.asp, it could be 20% in high-risk assets.
Investment is, in essence, simply a form of probability calculation.
Based on the above, it can be stated that investment is quantifying the probabilities associated with possible financial outcomes, creating a kind of mathematical distribution, on the basis of which a decision is eventually made. This is not speculation at all, but a probability and statistical calculation based on mathematics.
Think about it—what probability did people ascribe to Tesla or Google shares?
Looking back, it is clear that even a 10% investment would have more than paid off by now, and would have multiplied the amount originally invested.
A one-time $100,000 investment in Tesla would have grown to $27.3 million (+27,178%), while in Google it would have become $10.4 million (+10,320%).
Despite this, initial reactions were negative, just as with Bitcoin.
The Problem: The Impact of Inflation, or the Loss of Cash Value
One of the frequently mentioned arguments for Bitcoin is that it does not inflate—rather, it deflates (the opposite of inflation). As a result, its value increases over the long term, while the value of cash decreases due to inflation.
Worldwide average inflation quantified (with example calculation)
- Since the 1960s, the global consumer price index (CPI) has increased by about 900–1000%, meaning the purchasing power of money has shrunk to roughly a tenth over sixty years.
- That means, for example, $1,000 in 1960 is worth just ~$100 in real terms in 2025, when accounting for average inflation.
- In the USA, according to official statistics, with an average annual inflation of just 3.75%, the total price increase is 995% (almost 10x currency depreciation).
- Globally, the average inflation rate is 2.5% in developed countries, 5.3% in emerging countries, and 4.2% overall according to the IMF. Impact of crises
- During major global crises (oil crises, 2008, COVID-19, wars), inflation temporarily spikes, even exceeding 10%.
- In the long run, these crises further erode the purchasing power of money and accelerate value loss.
Negative effects of inflation: The average world citizen who keeps their money in a bank account or as cash suffers drastic wealth loss in the long run: a 90–99% real value loss is expected over a 60-year period. Those who do not invest in inflation-tracking assets (real estate, stocks, etc.) remain “prisoners” of currency depreciation for life, since the same amount of money is worth less every year.
Note: The global consumer price index (CPI), which is used to calculate inflation, originally only included the most essential consumer goods. Nowadays, even products like the iPhone are included, which distorts the original value (artificially improving the inflation percentage).
2010–2025 period based on CPI calculation (Instead of buying Bitcoin):
- Cumulative inflation: +48.57%
- $100,000 in cash today has the purchasing power of: $67,308
- Value loss: $32,692 (-32.7%)
This clearly shows that so-called “safe” cash holdings actually mean a guaranteed long-term loss due to inflation. Bitcoin clearly offers a solution to this problem.
Comparing Google, Tesla, and Bitcoin
IPO Performance, Early Reactions, Analyst Forecasts:
Tesla IPO (June 29, 2010)
Tesla offered its shares at $17 at IPO, above the expected $14–16 range. On the first day of trading, the stock rose 40.5%, closing at $23.89—this was the second-highest first-day IPO gain in 2010. However, a year later, the return was just +18.9% since the stock (split-adjusted) fell back to $1.89.
Jim Cramer initially said “buy, buy, buy,” then reversed his stance days later. Barron’s published a skeptical article titled “Tesla: A Carmaker Even More Overpriced Than Its Cars.” Goldman Sachs started coverage with a “Neutral” rating, doubting Tesla’s manufacturing capability. Bob Lutz, former GM vice-chairman, predicted “Tesla’s business model is doomed to fail.”
The public sentiment was overwhelmingly negative. Analysts were worried about an unsustainable burn rate ($290M cumulative loss pre-IPO), lack of manufacturing experience, and unproven demand for EVs. The consensus was that Tesla was a high-risk speculative investment.
Google IPO (August 19, 2004)
Google went public at $85, which was a significant reduction from the originally intended $108–135 range. On its first trading day, the stock rose 18%, closing at $100.34. One year later, the stock achieved a +178.8% split-adjusted return, reaching $6.97.
Wall Street was initially skeptical about Google’s IPO pricing but acknowledged the company’s profitability ($105.6M profit in 2003 on $147M revenue). Most analysts rated the stock as “hold” or “neutral,” not “strong buy.”
Analysts were concerned that Google was less diversified than Yahoo’s combined search and display ads model. The IPO process was controversial—using a Dutch auction alienated many investors, and the company’s “unconventional” approach posed a challenge. However, Scott Kessler from Standard & Poor’s saw the potential weeks before the IPO, predicting a split-adjusted $80 target price.
Bitcoin – Early Reactions (2009)
In its first months, Bitcoin became known mainly among cyberpunks and technological idealists who were excited by the idea of alternative money, decentralization, and independence from banks. For nearly a year, Bitcoin was virtually worthless, with no real market price—it was mostly exchanged experimentally or just for fun.
Mainstream economic analysts ignored Bitcoin completely; only well-known cryptographers such as Hal Finney, Nick Szabo, and Wei Dai highlighted its revolutionary potential as a new form of money. Satoshi Nakamoto’s main message was decentralization, peer-to-peer money, and value storage outside banks, promoted as a response to the trust deficit after the 2008 financial crisis.
Analysts totally overlooked it, even though it offered a solution to our economic problems. The reason: In 2009, Bitcoin didn’t exist as an official market product, only a few technical forecasts and speculative opinions. Hal Finney famously speculated already in 2009 that if Bitcoin caught on, it could reach a $10 million value.
Bitcoin: The Reality
Since then, Bitcoin’s performance has surpassed all imagination—a $100,000 investment would have grown to $232.2 billion since its 2010 start—a 2,321,530-fold return. Tesla’s $27.3 million (272x) and Google’s $10.4 million (104x) returns are also excellent, but far behind Bitcoin. If you hadn’t invested your money, inflation would have eroded your purchasing power by 41.7% (2004) or 32.7% (2010).
Bitcoin: Why It’s History’s Most Successful Asset
Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin’s price has skyrocketed. As the first decentralized digital currency, it solved the double-spending problem and removed central authorities from controlling financial transactions.
This created a new, resilient, global, and limited-supply store of value that is free from inflation, and has attracted increasing institutional investment. Bitcoin’s strength comes from breakthrough technology, security, decentralization, and growing acceptance, which together have generated massive wealth, making it the first successful digital asset.
Bitcoin’s main success factors:
- Decentralization: No central control, making it more resistant to censorship and interference.
- Limited supply: There can be a maximum of 21 million bitcoins, providing immunity to inflation.
- Security: Strong cryptographic security and consensus mechanism (Proof of Work).
- Transparency: A public blockchain where all transactions are verifiable, but users’ identities remain private.
- First to solve the double-spending problem in digital form.
- Mining: Incentivizes network upkeep and security with enormous computing power.
- Global acceptance: More and more institutional investors and firms are using it, boosting its value and liquidity.
Comparison of Investments
1. Scenario: $100,000 Lump-Sum Investment at IPO
Bitcoin First Trading Data (July 17, 2010):
- Starting price: $0.04951 (Mt.Gox exchange)
- After 1 year: $13.16 (+26,480%)
- Price at the time of writing: $114,939 (+232,153,017%)
$100,000 investment details:
- BTC bought: 2,019,794 units
- Nominal value today: $232.15 billion
- Inflation-adjusted value: $156.26 billion
- This is more than 8,500 times Tesla’s performance in the same period
Google (August 2004):
- Investment: $100,000 @ $2.50/share (split-adjusted)
- Shares purchased: 40,000
- Current nominal value: $10,420,400
- Real (inflation-adjusted): $6,075,681
- Nominal return: +10,320%
- Real return: +5,976%
Tesla (June 2010):
- Investment: $100,000 @ $1.59/share (split-adjusted)
- Shares purchased: 62,893
- Current nominal value: $27,277,987
- Real (inflation-adjusted): $18,360,360
- Nominal return: +27,178%
- Real return: +18,260%
Detailed Comparison: $100,000 Lump-Sum Investment
| Company / Asset | IPO / Start | Start price | Price Today (2025-10) | Years | $100k → Today | $100k → Real Value | Return % | Real Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-08-19 | $85 ($2.50 split-adj) | $260.51 | 21.2 | $10.4M | $6.1M | +10,320% | +5,976% | |
| Tesla | 2010-06-29 | $17 ($1.59 split-adj) | $433.72 | 15.3 | $27.3M | $18.4M | +27,178% | +18,260% |
| Bitcoin | 2010-07-17 | $0.05 | $114,939 | 15.3 | $232.2B | $156.3B | +232,153,017% | +156,258,308% |
| Cash (2004) | 2004 | – | – | 21.2 | $100k | $58.3k | 0% | -41.7% |
| Cash (2010) | 2010 | – | – | 15.3 | $100k | $67.3k | 0% | -32.7% |
2. Scenario: $500 Monthly Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)
DCA: Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy where you invest a fixed amount at regular intervals, for example $500 per month, regardless of current price. This means you buy more when prices are low and less when prices are high, which reduces your average purchase price and lessens the negative impact of price fluctuations over time.
Google (since August 2004):
- Monthly investment: $500
- Total invested: $127,500 (255 months)
- Shares accumulated: 6,666
- Today’s nominal value: $1,736,634
- Real value: $1,012,556
- Nominal return: +1,262%
- Real return: +694%
Tesla (since June 2010):
- Monthly investment: $500
- Total invested: $92,500 (185 months)
- Shares accumulated: 12,363
- Today’s nominal value: $5,361,925
- Real value: $3,609,023
- Nominal return: +5,697%
- Real return: +3,802%
Bitcoin $500 monthly DCA results:
- Total invested: $92,000 (184 months)
- BTC accumulated: 44,440.58 units
- Today’s value: $5.11 billion
- Average monthly return: ~5,500,000% total
$500 Monthly Dollar Cost Averaging Strategy
| Investment Strategy | Period | Monthly Amount | Total Invested | Today’s Value | Real Value | Profit | Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google DCA | 2004-2025 | $500 | $127,500 | $1.74M | $1.01M | $1.61M | +1,262% |
| Tesla DCA | 2010-2025 | $500 | $92,500 | $5.36M | $3.61M | $5.27M | +5,697% |
| Bitcoin DCA | 2010-2025 | $500 | $92,000 | $5.11B | $3.44B | $5.11B | +5,552,026% |
| Cash (2004) | 2004-2025 | $500 | $127,500 | $127.5k | $93.9k | $0 | 0% |
| Cash (2010) | 2010-2025 | $500 | $92,500 | $92.5k | $74.4k | $0 | 0% |
Full Comparative Analysis
| Investment | Period | Amount Invested | Value Today (nominal) | Value Today (real) | Return (nominal) | Return (real) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google – $100k lump sum | 2004-2025 (21.2 yrs) | $100,000 | $10,420,400 | $6,075,681 | +10,320% | +5,976% |
| Tesla – $100k lump sum | 2010-2025 (15.3 yrs) | $100,000 | $27,277,987 | $18,360,360 | +27,178% | +18,260% |
| Bitcoin – $100k lump sum | 2010-2025 (15.3 yrs) | $100,000 | $232,153,117,431 | $156,258,408,448 | +232,153,017% | +156,258,308% |
| Cash – $100k (2004) | 2004-2025 (21.2 yrs) | $100,000 | $100,000 | $58,306 | 0% | -41.7% |
| Cash – $100k (2010) | 2010-2025 (15.3 yrs) | $100,000 | $100,000 | $67,308 | 0% | -32.7% |
| Google – $500/mo DCA | 2004-2025 (21.2 yrs) | $127,500 | $1,736,634 | $1,012,556 | +1,262% | +694% |
| Tesla – $500/mo DCA | 2010-2025 (15.3 yrs) | $92,500 | $5,361,925 | $3,609,023 | +5,697% | +3,802% |
| Bitcoin – $500/mo DCA | 2010-2025 (15.3 yrs) | $92,000 | $5,107,956,244 | $3,438,080,530 | +5,552,026% | +3,736,944% |
| Cash DCA (2004) | 2004-2025 (255 mos) | $127,500 | $127,500 | $93,919 | 0% | -26.3% |
| Cash DCA (2010) | 2010-2025 (184 mos) | $92,500 | $92,500 | $74,426 | 0% | -19.5% |
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s unmatched performance: Since Mt.Gox’s launch in 2010, Bitcoin has increased by 23 million percent, dwarfing all traditional assets. A $100k investment would have grown to $232 billion, while for Tesla it would have been “only” $27 million.
- Inflation can’t be ignored: Even for great stock performance, inflation cuts real returns by 41–49%. This matters less for Bitcoin, but for Google and Tesla investors it’s crucial.
- Cash = guaranteed loss: So-called “safe” cash holdings resulted in a 32–42% loss of purchasing power over 15–21 years. This is not an investment strategy, but guaranteed destruction of value.
- DCA vs. Lump Sum: For Bitcoin, both strategies produced spectacular results ($232B vs. $5.1B), but a lump sum investment was 45,000 times more effective. For Tesla and Google, the gap is smaller, but still 5–10x.
- The benefit of early entry: Bitcoin’s starting price ($0.05) and Google’s split-adjusted price ($2.50) were far below their real value. Early entrants had a decisive advantage—Bitcoin’s first-year +26,480% return was legendary in itself.
- Patience through volatility: After 1 year, Bitcoin was “only” up +26,480%; by 15 years, it reached +232 million percent. Tesla was at +19% after 1 year, then finally reached +27,178%. Long-term investing is critical.
- Bitcoin is the future: It’s increasingly becoming positioned as digital gold, except with a tighter supply and easier transport than gold. During the article writing, numerous countries were buying Bitcoin as a hedge or investment asset.
How to Buy Bitcoin
How to get started? The simplest way is to buy with a bank card. Many exchanges offer this, but a few things are worth keeping in mind—we tested most exchanges, see more here:
Quick steps:
- Choose a reliable crypto exchange or broker (e.g., Binance, Coinbase, Kraken).
- Create an account and verify your identity (KYC process).
- Link your bank card to your account.
- Select the amount of bitcoin you want to buy.
- Initiate the purchase with your bank card and confirm the transaction.
- The purchased bitcoin will appear in your exchange/account wallet.
- It’s recommended to move your bitcoin to your own secure wallet (e.g., hardware wallet).
For more info: How to Buy Bitcoin, Options, Simpler Solutions